Principles
Our current foreign policy is driven by a desire to plant seeds of democracy and cultivate them so that they spread, thereby making the U.S. more secure. This rests on the conventional wisdom that democracies usually don't go to war against each other.
(Of course, Elrod used to note that no two nations with a McDonald's ever fought each other, but then along came the demise of Yugoslavia, thereby disproving the Neo-Golden Arches theory of international relations.)
So how do we react when a violent, terrorist (and social and political and religious) organization is voted into political power by democratic elections? Will we accept the mandate of the electorate? Will we question the validity of their elections? Will we declare that they must not really be a democracy at all because surely no democratic people would choose such a government? Will we acknowledge their legitimacy, then undermine our own conventional wisdom by treating them as enemies?
(Of course, Elrod used to note that no two nations with a McDonald's ever fought each other, but then along came the demise of Yugoslavia, thereby disproving the Neo-Golden Arches theory of international relations.)
So how do we react when a violent, terrorist (and social and political and religious) organization is voted into political power by democratic elections? Will we accept the mandate of the electorate? Will we question the validity of their elections? Will we declare that they must not really be a democracy at all because surely no democratic people would choose such a government? Will we acknowledge their legitimacy, then undermine our own conventional wisdom by treating them as enemies?
posted by JRB at 9:59 AM
2 Comments:
It is my opinion that democratization of Middle Eastern countries is not necessarily in the best interest of the security of the U.S. With some countries peopled mostly by moderate muslim population, it may not be bad, but in the case of Saudi Arabia, for example, it is the worst thing we could do. The estimates of support for a candidate of the Wahabi (sp?) sect in that kingdom are up to 90% were they given the chance to vote. This is the sect that birthed Bin Laden, and is virulently anti-western, anti-American, and anti-Israeli. The house of Saud is the only thing keeping the lid on the situation there presently, and the only way we are able to maintain any presence now.
If the Saudi kingdom were to be overthrown, the new leaders of the country could bring down the U.S. economy with just a stroke of the pen, and with not a shot fired if they so desired. If the Saudi nation's investment in the U.S. stock market were pulled out, (estimates range up to a quarter of the value of the entire trading dollars every day!) Wall Street would head into a tailspin. This has nothing to do with oil embargoes, military might, or anything else. They pretty much own our future just by virtue of the amount of our economy that they control. If a radical cleric were in control there, he may not blink at the damage it would cause his own people, having a suicide bomber mentality, and thinking they are doing it for the glory of Allah.
I know this is scary stuff, but democracy for everyone in the world may not be in the best interest of this country, and as far as a foreign policy just for the purpose of making the world safer, pretty much stinks.
If you think Hamas in Palestine is dangerous to us, wait until the Wahabis gain control in the country that owns the largest known oil reserves around. It ain't pretty.
You must have spies in my class; we discussed the Golden Arches Theory of Conflict Prevention in IR on Monday. I wanted to make sure that nobody thought that the idea was original with me. Thomas Friedman discussed it in "The Lexus and the Olive Tree".
It is a variation of the Democratic Peace Hypothesis that argues that history shows that democracies are less likely to go to war with each other. However, there is some disagreement about what consitutes a democracy and the transition period that most new democratic systems go through is pretty unstable and may produce conflicts.
It doesn't hurt to be geographically isolated like the US or Britain either.
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